Expectations of bankers according to rates also are confirmed in invest companies. So, growth of a portfolio of credits of legal persons predict at level of 8,5 %, depreciation — to 9 %. That you will not tell about crediting of physical persons — under forecasts of financiers, in coming year it will be developed slowly and can’t compensate reducing of an existing portfolio.
Next year banks already will be ready to give a mortgage, but here clients will be hardly ready to take these credits. Therefore such kind of crediting will still develop very slowly. Portfolios of an auto- and consumer credits will grow more dynamically, — as bakers predicts.
As to credit rates for enterprise customers bankers rather carefully give forecasts on their dynamics. Formulations sounded mainly as “below existing”, “at level acceptable for business”, “average” etc. At the same time several major banks with the foreign capital admit that lately have serious doubts about improvement of conditions for enterprise customers, in connection with problems in Europe, oppose essential liberalization of conditions of corporate crediting in many banks. As a result bankers are afraid that the most attractive enterprise customers become extraction of banks which now many experts charge in “the political approach to crediting”, that is issue of loans on frequently unfairly loyal conditions for the sake of reception of assets of the strategic enterprises.
Development by bank groups of accompanying non-bank financial services becomes one more tendency of next year, except quite predicted attempts to increase assets. It is a question about working at banks non-state pension funds, the leasing companies etc.
Profit from accompanying financial businesses experts consider to be quite justified. Credit portfolios next year will grow still extremely slowly, and reserves which to bankers should be formed in connection with still enough high percent of problem indebtedness, hardly allow them to leave on sustained profit (though financiers unanimously declare that loss-making banks in the first twenty next year any more doesn’t remain). Accompanying products and services, by different estimations, can occupy next year from 11 % to 23 % in structure of incomes of bank companies.
And the next year should become last year when for bankers there will be still a vital topic of problem indebtedness. The raised competition in the market of collector and factoring companies which, in turn, has led to increase in quotations at portfolios, will stimulate banks more actively to sell “problem”. And it is not only about poor pledges, but also mortgage portfolios, return on which at times reached 50 % in this connection banks kept for them to the last, disagreeing to sell with discount of 85-90 %.
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